Emergency! The weather is too average.

It was July 2023 and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had produced a special emergency report. The Prime Minister knew it was serious as it was the first time that Sir Walter Rising, the UK representative of the IPCC, had asked to see him in person. Sir Walter urgently wanted to discuss the findings of the report with the Prime Minister. What on earth could it be? The Prime Minister nervously fiddled with his tie as he waited for his visitor.

Sir Walter was ushered into the Prime Minister’s parliamentary office and the PM welcomed him with a broad smile and a handshake, trying hard to disguise his sense of apprehension.

PRIME MINISTER: Wonderful to see you, Sir Walter. So what on earth is this urgent news about the climate? The last few months seem to have been fairly uneventful to me.

SIR WALTER: Well yes, that’s the problem Prime Minister. The climate stats for the last quarter are far too average.

PRIME MINISTER: That’s preposterous! How on earth could they be too average?

SIR WALTER: Well, we’ve never seen figures like this before. It really is highly improbable for them to be quite so average.

PRIME MINISTER: Are you trying to tell me that the figures are remarkably unremarkable?

SIR WALTER: Yes, startlingly so. If we take the mean temperatures, wind speeds and rainfall for the last hundred years and compare them to the figures for the last three months then we can see they are almost identical. Here take a look for yourself.

PRIME MINISTER: Well what’s wrong with that?

SIR WALTER: It’s completely unprecedented. We would expect to see fluctuations from the average figures for any particular time of year. There is simply no extreme weather being recorded anywhere in the world currently. It really is quite extraordinary.

PRIME MINISTER: So what might it indicate?

SIR WALTER: Well, it’s a very clear indication of manmade climate change.

PRIME MINISTER: Now hang on just a minute. I understand that the exceptionally warm weather we experienced last year was due to manmade climate change. I’m even prepared to accept the theory that our recent cold spells were an indirect result of it too. But average weather? Is there any kind of weather that the IPCC would actually welcome?

SIR WALTER: Well a moderate amount of averageness would be fine but this extreme level of averageness is quite alarming. It is almost certainly an indication that something isn’t right. The quiet before the storm so to speak. The last time this level of averageness was recorded was just before the ice age.

PRIME MINISTER: The ice age? How could you possibly have anything on record two million years before records began?

SIR WALTER: Computer modelling of course.

PRIME MINISTER: You mean computer modelling can accurately record weather conditions on a daily basis from two million years ago?

SIR WALTER: No of course we don’t do it day by day. We average it out.

PRIME MINISTER: So you averaged out the figures and then found them to be remarkably average…hmm, who would have thought?…okay then, so assuming your calculations are all correct then am I to take it that we should prepare for a period of cooling rather than global warming?

SIR WALTER: Global warming is a very outdated term. We stopped using it because there were too many conspiracy theorists pointing out that this or that part of the world was actually cooling down. It was very unhelpful. That’s why we prefer to use “climate change” now. Following this average period we are now experiencing we are likely to see even more extreme conditions – heavy storms, flooding, blizzards, sub-zero temperatures and heat-waves.

PRIME MINISTER: Why not just more averageness?

SIR WALTER: Very unlikely. Extreme averageness like this is unsustainable. This level of averageness going on indefinitely is completely against the law of averages.

PRIME MINISTER: So what should we do?

SIR WALTER: Well this is an emergency situation. If we are going to stand any chance of saving the planet then we need to achieve net zero by the end of this year.

PRIME MINISTER: By the end of the year? That’s impossible! The country would grind to a halt. Surely it can’t all be down to co2 emissions in any case. You said this is what happened two million years ago before we started using oil and gas.

SIR WALTER: As you know very well, oil and gas are not the only things that cause co2 emissions. Cows are also a very big problem.

PRIME MINISTER: Cows? There weren’t any cows on the planet two million years ago. Now I know for sure that you’re pulling my leg!

SIR WALTER: Maybe there weren’t any cows but there were dinosaurs. If the digestive system of a cow can produce enough methane gas to be an environmental hazard then imagine what a hundred-and-thirty feet Argentinosaurus would produce.

PRIME MINISTER: Now you’re trying to tell me that the ice age was caused by farting dinosaurs. That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard!

SIR WALTER: Science can seem improbable at times. I’ll leave the report with you for you to peruse in your own time. I do urge you not to take too long though. Time is running out.